Before votes are tallied on election night, exit polls offer an early look at who is voting and what is motivating their choices.
An exit poll is a survey of voters taken as they leave (or exit) their voting location. Unlike public opinion polls ahead of elections that predict whether respondents will vote, exit polls capture the views of voters in person on Election Day. The exit poll also reflects the views of people who voted early or by mail — we take steps to reach those voters by phone and by mail, as well as online.
Here’s how exit polls work, where they are conducted and how NBC News will be using the results on election night and in the days after.
Who conducts the exit poll?
For this year’s midterm election, exit polls are being conducted by SSRS, a survey and market research firm, on behalf of a group of news organizations: NBC News, ABC News, The Associated Press, CBS News, CNN, Fox News and MS NOW. The companies receive the same data, and NBC News then independently analyzes and reports on the exit poll results.
What questions are asked?
The national exit poll asks respondents whether they voted for the Democratic or Republican House candidate in their district, and in many states the poll also asks which candidates voters supported in Senate and governor’s races.
In addition, the poll usually includes a number of questions about voters’ views, such as, “What is the most important issue facing the country?”
The other key component of an exit poll is asking about voters’ demographics, such as age, gender, race and education level.
These types of questions help illustrate how different groups of people voted and what mattered to them. Demographic data is also used to weight the exit poll — that is, to make sure the poll reflects the demographics of the electorate as well as the election results.
The national and state exit polls include some different questions, to capture voters’ views on local issues and candidates.
The news organizations jointly determine how the exit poll will be conducted and develop the questionnaire together.
How are exit polls conducted?
The in-person Election Day exit polls are surveys that voters in scientifically selected precincts are asked to fill out as they leave their polling place. The paper forms have about 25 questions.
This year, interviewers will be stationed at over 450 polling locations in 15 Senate battleground states. Each interviewer follows local rules about where they can stand outside the polling location.
The exit polls also include a pre-election survey to capture voters no matter how they participate, whether early, by mail or on Election Day. Before Election Day, respondents are surveyed through methods including mailed invitations, telephone and text interviews and online surveys. Interviewers then follow up with respondents to confirm that they voted and whom they ultimately voted for.
Respondents can complete the poll in English or Spanish.
On Election Day, interviewers count the people coming out after they have voted and are instructed to offer questionnaires to every third person or every fifth person, for example, from the time polls open until polls close.
Interviewers phone in the results from the questionnaires to a data center three times during the day. Those results are tabulated with the pre-election survey results, and the exit poll is updated throughout the day as new data is collected.
Are exit polls anonymous?
Yes. In person, voters fill out the questionnaires themselves and deposit them in boxes, so their answers, like their actual ballots, are secret. Interviews conducted by mail, by phone and online do not retain any personal information about the voter who was interviewed.
Which states will have exit polls?
In addition to a national exit poll, which captures voters in all 50 states, there are also state exit polls this year in 45 states that have consequential Senate and governor’s contests.
How many people are interviewed?
The national exit poll sample will include over 75,000 voters at voting locations, online and by telephone.
In 15 states, interviewers will be stationed outside at least 30 randomly sampled voting locations. In the remaining states, interviews are conducted via phone, online and mail.
The sample size in each of these states will be about 4,000 voters: Arizona, California, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas and Wisconsin.
The sample size in Alaska will be about 3,000 voters, and it will also include interviews from voters at early-voting locations before Election Day.
All other states with exit poll results for Senate and governor’s races will include between 500 and 3,000 voters.
How do we use exit polls?
The NBC News Decision Desk uses some exit poll data to help project race outcomes on election night, but the exit poll is primarily used to help tell the story of the election.
The data gives viewers and readers real-time insight into what motivates voters and how they feel about the country. It’s the nation’s first look at who is turning out to vote this year and what is driving their choices.
What does NBC News report and when?
NBC News does not report any exit poll results before 5 p.m. ET on election night, and no exit poll results that may indicate the outcome of a race are reported until after all the polls are scheduled to close in that state. As election night goes on and interviewers on the ground call in more exit poll results, the data is updated and reweighted in real time.
